Morning folks. Here’s your Week Just Gone, Week To Come and What The Papers Said bulletin.
THE WEEK JUST GONE
Equities started the week badly following Citigroup’s weekend disclosure that it had chucked out CEO Chuck Prince and would write down between $8-11 billion on sub-prime loans. Apart from a brief rally on news of a £50 billion bid for RTZ equities trended lower over the week on a diet of bad news.
Federal Reserve Chairman Bernanke poured cold water on troubled oils, warning that the US economy will remain sluggish until mid 2008. China talked of the need to diversify some of its billions away from the weak Dollar and the International Energy Agency warned that oil supplies weren’t keeping up with the demand from India and China. Interest rates remained unchanged in Europe and the UK.
Across markets the falls ranged from a barely changed Dax –0.5% to the harder hit Asian markets with the Nikkei and Hang Seng falling by 5.5%. The FTSE and S&P fell by around 3.5% with the Dow faring worse at –4.1%.
Financials dominated the news flow with Wachovia declaring a $1.1 billion sub-prime related loss for October alone and Barclays denying further rumours on the extent of its sub-prime exposure. Morgan Stanley bucked the trend losing $3.7 billion (so far) on getting the sub-prime market right! And as if the market hadn’t taken the hint credit rating agency, Moodys, downgraded $36 bn of debt held in SIVs.
Sainsbury shares plummeted 20% on confirmation that Qatari backed Delta Two were no longer interested in bidding for the company. Ryanair announced a 26% rise in Q2 profits and raised its forecast for the full year. Posh knickers and smoked salmon retailer Marks & Spencer impressed with better than expected figures but Next disappointed with a cautious outlook.
The US Dollar continued to plummet, incurring the wrath of cheese-eating surrender monkeys Sarkozy and Trichet, who referred to the recent 10% fall against the Euro as ‘brutal’. Friday saw a mild reversal leaving the EURUSD at $1.4680 and GBPUSD at $2.0910. The Euro strengthened against Sterling, rising to £0.701.
Despite reaching new highs there was a sense of anti-climax when oil failed to test the $100 level. Brent Crude slipped on Friday, closing up $1 at $93.18.
Gold reached a 28-year high of $844 before profit taking left it $24 Dollars higher on the week at $831.6.
THE WEEK TO COME
On top of all the monkey business in the banking sector, this week provides a useful snapshot of the state of the UK economy; in addition to monthly inflation, average earnings and retail sales numbers Wednesday sees the release of the Monetary Policy Committee’s Quarterly Inflation Report. Watch out for earnings reports from US retailers Sears, Wal-Mart and Macys. There’ll be plenty of interest in interims from Bank of Ireland on Wednesday and the possibility of statements from HSBC, Barclays and RBS. US inflation numbers will be crucial to hopes for a further interest rate cut this year and will the weekly inventories push oil to the big $100?
FTSE options expiry at 10.15 on Friday
Monday (Veterans Day in US but equity markets open)
Economic indicators
UK: 09.30 Producer Price Index
Results
UK: Majestic Wines
IRE: DCC
US: Home Depot
Tuesday
Economic indicators
UK: 00.01 RICS House Prices, 09.30 CPI inflation
EU: 10.00 German ZEW, Eurozone Industrial Production
Results
UK: Babcock International, British Energy, Cable & Wireless, EMAP, Northern Foods and Vodafone interims
EU: EON
US: Sears, Wal-Mart
Wednesday
Economic indicators
UK: 09.30 Average Earnings and Employment, 10.30 Bank of England Quarterly Inflation Report
EU: 10.00 EU GDP Q3
US: 13.30 Producer Price Index and Retail Sales, 15.00 weekly oil inventories
Results
UK: Lonmin finals, Business Post, EMI, Land Securities, Sainsbury and Scottish & Southern Energy interims
IRE: Bank of Ireland
EU: RWE
US: First Data Corp, Macys and Applied Materials
Thursday
Economic indicators
UK: 09.30 Retail Sales
EU: 07.00 German CPI, 10.00 EU CPI
US: 13.30 Empire State Manufacturing, CPI and weekly jobless, 17.00 Philadelphia Fed Index
Results
UK: British Land, Experian, Investec, London Stock Exchange, National Grid and Vedanta Resources interims, Ladbrokes and Reed Elsevier trading statements
US: Starbucks, Tyco
Friday
Economic indicators
EU: 10.00 Trade Balance
US: 14.30 TIC capital inflows, 14.15 Industrial Production
No Results Today
WHAT THE PAPERS SAID
Plenty of rainforests dedicated to the banking crisis this week; The Telegraph expects HSBC to lead the disclosures, owning up to a further $1 billion of bad debts from its US mortgage business.
Barclays is under pressure to bring forward its trading statement from 27th November in order to calm the market in its shares. The Observer reports that this will in turn put pressure on RBS to do likewise. Both banks have seen their share prices fall by almost 30% in the last three months.
The mega BHP Billiton attempted takeover of RTZ is set to fill the papers for weeks. The Telegraph reports a small secret stake building by the government-backed China Development Bank. Although only a 1% holding this is the first time that China has invested directly in a global miner and can be taken as a sign of its concern over the potential pricing power of the merged group, which will account for 40% of the world’s iron-ore production.
The Independent mentions that members of OPEC are due to meet this week in the light of the recent oil price rise to debate increasing output. It reckons that members are split on the merits and effectiveness of increasing output further than the 500,000 barrels per day increase at the start of the month. Analysts reportedly think any increase would be insufficient given the global background and that the era of cheap oil is over.
The Sunday Times has the scoop on plans by Land Securities to split into three companies. The paper expects Land to use its half-year results on Wednesday to announce the split into Trillium the outsourcing division, the retail division and the London office division.
The Sunday Times previews Monday’s quarterly report by the Institute of Directors, which shows a drop in optimism to 4% from 24% three months ago. The report reckons that the credit crisis has led to a bigger fall in confidence than the September 11th terrorist attacks. Worryingly, investment intentions have fallen to –3%, which doesn’t bode well for the economy in general.
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