Morning folks. Here’s your Week Just Gone, Week To Come and What The Papers Said bulletin.
THE WEEK JUST GONE
Central bankers around the world expressed their concerns over the credit crunch and the higher probability of a slowdown in economic growth. Investors, however, chose to focus on the increasing likelihood of a cut in US interest rates when the Federal Reserve meets next week. Before then however are Interest Rate decisons from the European Central Bank (a change is considered unlikely) and the Bank Of England (a cut is considered possible).
Equity markets started the week nervously as credit fears amongst the banks continued to push short-term money rates higher, but reassuring comments from Ben Bernanke of the Federal Reserve led to a 700-point rally in the Dow and a 400-point rise in the FTSE.
The bullish mood in equities was exaggerated by month-end factors (it was also the year-end for some US investment banks) with the FTSE, Dax, Dow and S&P all up by around 3%, and Asian markets faring better still with the Nikkei +5.3% and Hang Seng +7.9%.
Citigroup pleased the markets by announcing that it had raised $7.5billion in new capital from the Abu Dhabi Investment Authority. Excellent results from Anglo Irish saw an immediate 7% rise in the share price and investors greeted trading statements from Barclays and Alliance & Leicester with relief.
Shares in Compass Group rallied 7% following great results and a positive statement, but DSG remained cautious looking into 2008 and Wolseley suffered from its exposure to the US housing market. US retailer, Sears Group, saw its shares fall 15% after a massive fall in profits.
Despite increasing hopes of a rate cut the Dollar rose in value against both the Euro and Sterling, ending the week at $1.4630 and $2.0580 respectively. A greater appetite for risk saw the Yen weaken on switching into higher-yielding currencies, falling to Y111.18 against the Dollar.
The recent volatility in gold continued, with the precious metal falling $42 on the week to $782.
Oil fell below the $90 mark ahead of the coming week’s meeting of OPEC members. Brent Crude tumbled by over $8 to $88.26.
THE WEEK TO COME
There should be lots of excitement and plenty of trading opportunities this week. Thursday will see the announcement of any changes in interest rates for both Europe and the UK. But before that there’s the meeting of OPEC members to discuss whether they should increase their oil output and a separate meeting of the Gulf Cooperation Council, who’ll be debating whether they should price oil against a basket of currencies, rather than the Dollar, and whether they should abandon linking their currencies to the Dollar. And if that isn’t enough excitement, the week finishes with the US employment numbers. Oh and watch out for a trading statement from Royal Bank of Scotland. Phew!
Monday
Economic indicators
UK: 09.30 Manufacturing PMI
IRE: 08.30 Manufacturing PMI
EU: 07.45 French Producer Prices, 09.00 EU Manufacturing PMI, 10.00 EU Unemployment
US: 15.00 Manufacturing ISM
Results
UK: Morgan Crucible, Regent Inns and Capita trading statements
Tuesday
Economic indicators
UK: 00.01 BRC Retail Sales , 09.30 Construction PMI
EU: 10.00 Producer Prices
US: 20.00 ABC Consumer Confidence
Results
UK: Greene King interims, Tesco and Weir Group trading statements, Debenhams agm
IRE: Andor Technology results
EU: Thyssen Krupp
Wednesday
Economic indicators
UK: 00.01 Nationwide Consumer Confidence, 09.30 Services PMI
IRE: 11.00 Earnings and Labour Costs, 15.30 Budget
EU: 09.00 Services PMI, 10.00 Retail Sales
US: 13.15 ADP Employment, 13.30 Q3 Productivity, 15.00 Non-Manufacturing ISM and Factory Orders, 15.30 Oil Inventories
Results
UK: Stagecoach results, Shaftesbury interims, Standard Chartered trading statement
Thursday
Economic indicators
UK: 09.30 Manufacturing & Industrial Production, 12.00 Bank of England interest rate announcement
EU: 10.00 OECD Economic Report, 11.00 German Factory Orders, 12.45 European Central Bank interest rate announcement followed by press conference at 13.30.
US: 13.30 Weekly Jobless
Results
UK: Premier Farnell Q3 results, Bellway and Royal Bank of Scotland trading statements, Lonrho egm
US: Toll Brothers
Friday
Economic indicators
IRE: 11.00 Construction Employment
EU: 07.45 French Trade Balance, 11.00 German Industrial Production
US: 13.30 Non-Farm Payrolls, 15.00 University of Michigan Confidence
Results
UK: Berkeley Group results, Associated British Foods agm
IRE: Abbey interims, AIB trading statement
WHAT THE PAPERS SAID
Unsuprisingly there was a strong focus on the credit crunch this weekend; some articles concentrated on the big picture with the Telegraph warning that the Eurozone is unlikely to escape the effects of the US credit crunch, but that the UK would be wise not to take too much pleasure from this as Europe accounts for well over half of its trade. The Observer is more specific, referring to a report released late on Friday by credit rating agency Moodys, casting further doubts on the value of several SIVs.
The Sunday Telegraph expects this week’s trading statement from the Royal Bank of Scotland to give plenty of detail on its exposure to sub-prime loans, starting with a £2 billion write down of losses.
David Smith in the Sunday Times joins the increasing numbers calling for a cut in UK interest rates. He refers to the change in heart by the ‘Shadow MPC’, a bunch of intelligent worthies whose views precede the main event each month.
Focus of the Irish press is understandably on Wednesday’s forthcoming budget. The Irish Times warns that a domestic housing and construction slowdown and foreign credit shocks have combined to limit the options available to the Minister for Finance. The Sunday Business Post says that Minister Cowan needs to build the budget around a theme of competitiveness and productivity, keeping prices down and encouraging further employment.
The Sunday Times reports that a Malaysian gambling group has secretly built up a 10% stake in Rank, seen as a preemptive move as potential bidders start to circle. Rank shares had more than halved last year, but were up 25% last week on an approach for the group.
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