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Archive for October, 2008

Mr FT is a self-employed spread better. After 18 years in fund management he was given the choice of moving to London or .. not. ‘Not’ won out.

FT has been trading full time from home for two years, with nothing but four kids and a beach to distract him .

He fills his spare time with weight training and rugby, though more coaching than playing these days.

FT mostly trades the forex markets and although he plays FTSE on occasions his bread and butter market is £$.

He likes to think that his technique is evolving but still hasn’t the temperament or money to back the big calls. He prefers to trade between 1 and 3 times a day, aiming to take regular small gains, but feels part of the evolution is in not dealing if the conditions don’t feel right.
 Markets Not Impressed With Japan Rate Cut
Posted by FT on October 31, 2008
Category: Trade Diaries, Shares & Indices, Currencies by FT 13 Comments

Morning folks,
Japan delivered its first rate cut in seven years, but fickle markets were disappointed that the cut was a smaller than expected 0.2%. Equities and commodities are lower, the Dollar’s higher.

Today’s a day for caution. Wizards, witches and goblins aren’t the real danger today; the real threat comes from unpredictable month-end movements, right across markets. Yesterday I traded several currencies and two equity indexes, but today I’m taking a step back unless I see a real monster opportunity.


The Mole is the man in the know. Unlike most of the Paddy Power traders he doesn't spread bet for a living. Instead he works for a well-known Dublin institution where he heads a desk that regularly trades over €100 million a day.

The Mole says he mainly trades currencies but, as the markets are so closely related, he keeps a close eye on stocks and Oil too.
 Markets Trick Or Treat?
Posted by The Mole on October 31, 2008
Category: Economics, Shares & Indices, Currencies, Market Watch by The Mole Comment

The market just cannot make its mind up whether to go to the Halloween Ball as Nouriel Roubini or Hank and Ben.

But this week has really been about the correlation between the foreign exchange and equity markets. The best barometers of this are the Yen and the Aussie Dollar


Mr FT is a self-employed spread better. After 18 years in fund management he was given the choice of moving to London or .. not. ‘Not’ won out.

FT has been trading full time from home for two years, with nothing but four kids and a beach to distract him .

He fills his spare time with weight training and rugby, though more coaching than playing these days.

FT mostly trades the forex markets and although he plays FTSE on occasions his bread and butter market is £$.

He likes to think that his technique is evolving but still hasn’t the temperament or money to back the big calls. He prefers to trade between 1 and 3 times a day, aiming to take regular small gains, but feels part of the evolution is in not dealing if the conditions don’t feel right.
 The Rally In Equities Continues
Posted by FT on October 30, 2008
Category: Trade Diaries, Shares & Indices by FT 9 Comments

Morning folks,
So the Fed did what was expected of them, cutting by 50 basis points and indicating that there would be further rate cuts in the future. But hold on Harry, US rates are down to 1%; that leaves only 2 more rate cuts at the going rate or 4 if they ease back to 25bp a pop. That’s going to need a quick economic turnaround or some very careful expectations management. As promised, I’ve had a look at some charts that will give hope to equity bulls, but I’m still a miserable long-term bear.


The Mole is the man in the know. Unlike most of the Paddy Power traders he doesn't spread bet for a living. Instead he works for a well-known Dublin institution where he heads a desk that regularly trades over €100 million a day.

The Mole says he mainly trades currencies but, as the markets are so closely related, he keeps a close eye on stocks and Oil too.
 Fed Cuts Rates As Indices Are Indecisive
Posted by The Mole on October 30, 2008
Category: Economics, Shares & Indices, Market Watch by The Mole Comment

It was all going smoothly up for US indices… until 12 minutes before the close. Some commentators looking for a reason behind the late fall latched onto remarks from GE CEO Jeff Immelt where he implied there would be no 2009 growth. But somedays there are just more sellers than buyers. It’s really a case of déjà vu as the markets have repeatedly sold off post Fed rate cuts in this cycle. What a long strange trip it’s been back to 1%


Mr FT is a self-employed spread better. After 18 years in fund management he was given the choice of moving to London or .. not. ‘Not’ won out.

FT has been trading full time from home for two years, with nothing but four kids and a beach to distract him .

He fills his spare time with weight training and rugby, though more coaching than playing these days.

FT mostly trades the forex markets and although he plays FTSE on occasions his bread and butter market is £$.

He likes to think that his technique is evolving but still hasn’t the temperament or money to back the big calls. He prefers to trade between 1 and 3 times a day, aiming to take regular small gains, but feels part of the evolution is in not dealing if the conditions don’t feel right.
 Equities Surge Ahead Of US Rate Cut
Posted by FT on October 29, 2008
Category: Trade Diaries, Shares & Indices, Currencies by FT Comment

Hi folks,
Firstly, a big hand to those traders calling the long equity bet yesterday; the best I could manage was to not be too short! With all this pre-Fed volatility I’ve been keeping a lower profile, but I did make a few quid backing the Aussies today.


Z is a Paddy Power employee. He spent 10 years being something small in 'the City' before moving to Ireland and has been trading spread bets, on and off, for the last 4 years.

Right now Z is trading occasionally with the aim of supplementing his ‘day-job’ income. His current trading strategy means he tries to:
a) trade just one market (the FTSE)
b) make relatively few trades
c) make lower-risk trades
d) not let the sleep-loss caused by his new baby girl trash his judgement
 Will More Cuts And Bailouts Work?
Posted by Z on October 29, 2008
Category: Views & Opinions, Economics, Shares & Indices, Sub-Prime & Credit Crunch by Z Comment

John Maynard Keynes is the man of the moment. His ideas of ‘spending your way out of a recession’, which were left by the wayside in the ‘70s, are now a must have to keep next to your Charlie’s Angels pillow case and your Sergeant Pepper album sleeve. In the last month we’ve seen bailout after bailout. TARP, TAF, CPFF … the US alone has 6 different bailout facilities. Seems Paulson will run out of letters before he runs out of cash! However perhaps more important than these was a bailout of a different kind – the co-ordinated interest rate cuts of October 8th which we may even see repeated this week.


The Galloping Zebu is a financial spread bettor who is always looking for the next big market move. Therefore willing to take many small loses, as the big winners will (hopefully) cover them.

He likes a trade on FX and indices, but is a little scared of those volatile commodities. That doesn’t stop a dabble now and again, but he certainly keeps the deeds to the house in the back pocket when Brent Crude is involved.

This silly zebu can’t decide whether he prefers fundamental or technical analysis, so often makes “technically fundamental” trades. As long as both sides are saying to go the same way, lump on and hope for the best!
 Dow Jones Surges 889 Points As Indices Gain
Posted by The Galloping Zebu on October 29, 2008
Category: Economics, Shares & Indices, Oil, Gold & Commodities, Market Watch by The Galloping Zebu Comment

The Dow Jones had its second best one day point gain in history yesterday. But it wasn’t all up, up, up. An early 300 point gain was actually wiped out by mid-session. But beginning at 2PM New York time, the Dow soared 800 points in a little over 2 hours, finishing up nearly 11% on the day. What were the catalysts?


Mr FT is a self-employed spread better. After 18 years in fund management he was given the choice of moving to London or .. not. ‘Not’ won out.

FT has been trading full time from home for two years, with nothing but four kids and a beach to distract him .

He fills his spare time with weight training and rugby, though more coaching than playing these days.

FT mostly trades the forex markets and although he plays FTSE on occasions his bread and butter market is £$.

He likes to think that his technique is evolving but still hasn’t the temperament or money to back the big calls. He prefers to trade between 1 and 3 times a day, aiming to take regular small gains, but feels part of the evolution is in not dealing if the conditions don’t feel right.
 Volkswagen Driving The Dax Higher
Posted by FT on October 28, 2008
Category: Trade Diaries, Shares & Indices, Currencies by FT 20 Comments

Morning folks,
Blimey, what a crazy twelve hours; equity markets looked to be putting in a half-decent performance, then they toppled over with the Dow losing 300 points in the final throes of trading last night. Blow me, this morning the Nikkei hit a new low then rallied to finish over 600 points higher. Equity, commodity and forex markets all reversed previous trends in early trading and I’d traded in all 3 markets before 8 o’clock.


The Galloping Zebu is a financial spread bettor who is always looking for the next big market move. Therefore willing to take many small loses, as the big winners will (hopefully) cover them.

He likes a trade on FX and indices, but is a little scared of those volatile commodities. That doesn’t stop a dabble now and again, but he certainly keeps the deeds to the house in the back pocket when Brent Crude is involved.

This silly zebu can’t decide whether he prefers fundamental or technical analysis, so often makes “technically fundamental” trades. As long as both sides are saying to go the same way, lump on and hope for the best!
 Indices Open Up But Big Business Struggles
Posted by The Galloping Zebu on October 28, 2008
Category: Shares & Indices, Sub-Prime & Credit Crunch, Market Watch by The Galloping Zebu Comment

US markets finished down last night with the Dow Jones shedding another 2.42%. Microsoft was the biggest loser on the NASDAQ and Exxon Mobil had the dubious honour for the S&P 500. We’re moving past the banking crisis. Big business and the real economy are the new main worries


Mr FT is a self-employed spread better. After 18 years in fund management he was given the choice of moving to London or .. not. ‘Not’ won out.

FT has been trading full time from home for two years, with nothing but four kids and a beach to distract him .

He fills his spare time with weight training and rugby, though more coaching than playing these days.

FT mostly trades the forex markets and although he plays FTSE on occasions his bread and butter market is £$.

He likes to think that his technique is evolving but still hasn’t the temperament or money to back the big calls. He prefers to trade between 1 and 3 times a day, aiming to take regular small gains, but feels part of the evolution is in not dealing if the conditions don’t feel right.
 Nikkei Closes At 26 Year Low
Posted by FT on October 27, 2008
Category: Trade Diaries, Shares & Indices, Currencies by FT 9 Comments

Morning folks,
And a happy Bank Holiday to all of you in Ireland. Early morning trade has seen more of the same with Asian markets setting the tone with further falls in equities, while the US Dollar is everybody’s ‘must have’ accessory. I made some gains from buying the Dollar and used the weakness in equities to reduce my short bet in FTSE.


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