FT has been trading full time from home for two years, with nothing but four kids and a beach to distract him .
He fills his spare time with weight training and rugby, though more coaching than playing these days.
FT mostly trades the forex markets and although he plays FTSE on occasions his bread and butter market is £$.
He likes to think that his technique is evolving but still hasn’t the temperament or money to back the big calls. He prefers to trade between 1 and 3 times a day, aiming to take regular small gains, but feels part of the evolution is in not dealing if the conditions don’t feel right.
Faint Heart-No Weetabix
Yesterday’s banking sell-off provided me with my ‘buy on weakness’ opportunity, and I bottled it. In fairness, I’d have needed to be in and out quicker than Britney in re-hab, but that’s what pays for the loo rolls and Weetabix each month.
There’s a fine line between judgement and ‘shrivelled testicle syndrome’, avoiding falling knives or afraid to commit. Whatever you want to call it, yesterday Barclays’ shares were suddenly seriously out of fashion. And like the old telly advert, if no one else wanted the shares, nor did I. They’d just announced the purchase of a Russian bank, talk about frying pans and fires. The guys involved in the deal are much smarter than me and I’m sure it’s a great opportunity. But with Russian strategic bombers on regular sightseeing trips to the UK and Mr Putin clearly not in love with the western world, the timing is either brilliant or downright mad.
So, the price fell to around the 460p level, not quite low enough to test support at the downtrend line; a busy day in forex land was a good enough excuse to wait and watch. Bang! This morning’s levels were 10p higher at the open, moving higher to 475p at one stage.
The shares have fallen back, along with the FTSE index now, but that was one that got away. I tell you what though; with the number of new credit crunch stories spreading like Polish plumbers I’ll probably do just the same next time.
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An era of falling interest rates. Pah! Tell that to the Aussies. They’re making the ECB look like a kindly old uncle. Following February’s rise, this morning the Australian central bank stuck another 0.25% on for good measure. That takes the rate up to a 12-year high of 7.25%, wow! Core inflation down under is 3.8%, a touch higher than up here in Europe, but it makes you think.
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I’m taking a step back from trading the Euro today. The 3% rise against the Dollar over the past week has seen several European worthies comment on the effects the exchange rate will have on export growth. Verbal intervention, as it’s known, doesn’t work in the long term; it’s hot air and doesn’t cost anything, unlike real intervention. But in the short term it might take some of the buzz out of the trade. There’s nothing wrong in watching occasionally.
This is worth a quick look. I’ve come across some early footage of the rock band Queen, before Freddie Mercury got all confused and started wearing pink slippers.
Happy Trading
March 4th, 2008 at 12:23 pm
AUD/USD weakens on Oz CB interest rate rise. Was it already priced in?
March 4th, 2008 at 12:30 pm
Yeah,
currency was hit by triple whammy; rate hike was expected by those down under, central bank made mutterings about being in neutral and holding off now. Then retail sales came out below expectations. This seemed to be taken as instant proof that rate hikes were working!
March 4th, 2008 at 1:13 pm
Well, even if you can’t afford the Weetabix at least you’ve kept your cash and can buy Sainsbury’s own brand brekkie-biks (or whatever they call them, all taste like cardboard to me).
In current conditions, I’d feel much more comfortable going short at the resistance than buying at the support. Especially with the banks where, in my view, we’re still some way off the bargain basement level.
Nice video, was that you at the back on the right?
March 4th, 2008 at 1:36 pm
Perhaps not!
I’d suggest the second one in, but perhaps the lack of broccoli ear and cabbage nose (or whatever!) gives the game away.
They all look like Winston Churchill or Keith Wood to me!
March 4th, 2008 at 2:08 pm
cheers guys. Just back from the Dracula clinic to see Bank of Canada’s response to the Aussies-a cut in rates.A few stories flying around about more funds in trouble. Every now and then one might have a grain of truth to it. Talk of Merrill trading losses may not be true,but it’s specific.
March 4th, 2008 at 3:02 pm
I have stories FROM Merrill suggesting a Citi $18bn Q1 writedown coming, not helped by the head of Dubai’s SWF helpfully suggesting that Citi needs some more dosh-no doubt he wants the last few, cheap one’s!. Could just be MERL deflecting a bit of flak!
March 4th, 2008 at 4:09 pm
trading much at the moment Ken?
March 4th, 2008 at 5:43 pm
Mainly dithering at the moment. Despite what I said about favouring shorts over longs, I rode some long equity positions (Vodafone, Aviva, Glaxo, BT) up the last bounce. CLosed out VOD, AV and BT for tidy profits but hung on to GSK — should have closed as it was well ahead but is today back where I started (OK, a couple of points down).
I remain bearish, so why no shorts? Good question and I don’t have an answer other than lack of commitment/nerve.
Away from equities, I like EUR over $ but maybe too high for an entry now. And CAD over $ is looking interesting at around parity.
And I’m long of precious metals and soft commodities in my SIPP but have been for a while — I’m starting to buy into the “grains are a bubble, switch to livestock” story and have started to move that way.