GG now spends rainy days trading equities and currencies. He likes to use a combination of technical analysis and news flow to make trading decisions.
Antofagasta and Aer Lingus
Chilean copper producer Antofagasta is expected to post full year results on Tuesday. The company has been dogged by strikes and production problems over the last year so output tonnage is likely to be lower. However copper and molybdenum price rises should have compensated for the diminished production. The market is expecting net profits to be about $1.4bn, slightly ahead of last year. A strong surge in copper prices since the turn of the year may also enable the company to downplay the impact of a slowing global economy.
Also on Tuesday look out for results from AMEC, whilst engineering companies Cookson and Weir Group both report.
Although on Wednesday all eyes will either be on Alistair Darling’s first Budget or something with 3 legs in the 3.30 at Cheltenham, keep your spare one ready & polished for a few interesting company results.
Aer Lingus reports 2007 numbers, with forecasts centred on about €82m after profit sharing, giving earnings of about 17c.
The company is extremely sensitive to oil price movements; one analyst estimates that for every $5 per barrel movement above $85, earnings come down by 12%. Add in weakness in both US and Irish consumer markets, some industrial relations issues and one can’t help to think that the outlook statement is likely to be as uplifting as a Morrissey or The Smiths number! Recent comment from the British Airways’ investor day does little to lift the gloom that currently hangs over the airline sector.
Also on Wednesday keep ‘em peeled for what are expected to be decent results from Tullow Oil and something dreadful from ‘fcuk’ retailer French Connection.
March 11th, 2008 at 4:54 pm
Mixed set of data from ‘Fags’
Lower grade ore meant less copper output, with output down 8%. Costs look set to rise quite sharply, with labour, energy costs and the price of sulphric acid all increasing. Output for copper is expected to rise by 8% in 2008, but molybdenum production falls as lower grade ore bodies are worked.
After an initial markdown, the shares rose although have ended the day slightly lower
March 12th, 2008 at 10:36 am
Aer Lingus posted a decent set of operating results-up 16% giving €78.7m after profit share.
Underlying earnings per share were 19.9p confounding some of the most pessimistic views of 17c or less. This is still a decline of over 10% y-o-y. Ancillary revenue (baggage fees, car hire etc.) was a standout performer, with revenues up 71.5% y-o-y. Passenger numbers rose by 7%.
Looking to take quite a lot of cost out as $ weakness, oil price strength and uncertainty in major markets give a negative bias to proceedings. Quite a lot more capacity added, so will have to work hard to fill it.
Eeek——64% of fuel requirements unhedged, every $5 move in a tonne of jet fuel impacts by $1.5m. Lets hope Saudi turn the taps on then! Current bookings in line with last year.