GG now spends rainy days trading equities and currencies. He likes to use a combination of technical analysis and news flow to make trading decisions.
Convoluted cross-shareholdings and ‘will they/won’t they’ bid speculation will be the order of the day when mining group ENRC issues its inaugural sets of results on Wednesday. ENRC (Eurasian Natural Resources Corporation) has surprised the market, doubling in price since listing in December ‘07 and slipping into the FTSE 100 at the recent review in March. Part of the reason that it has done so well is its relative lack of liquidity for a large company. ENRC is still 44% owned by its founding trio and the Kazakh government still have a decent slug of the equity too, making for a small ‘free-float’ and explaining the recent scramble for shares from funds which track the FTSE 100.
In case you haven’t heard of it, ENRC is a Kazakhstan based mining and processing company (although it also has power and logistics divisions). It is the world’s 6th largest iron ore exporter and is the world’s largest producer of ferrochrome, ostensibly used in the production of stainless steel.
ENRC has expressed an interest in combining with the other UK listed Kazakhstan mining outfit Kazakhmys, in a bid which could be worth about $16bn. Fuel was added to the takeover fire when the Kazakh government (owners of 20% of ENRC) recently suggested that it was seeking to acquire up to 15% of Kazakhmys. In turn, Kazakhmys owns 14.6% of ENRC. Still with me?
As for the results, analysts are looking for an average net profit of around $915m, (+67%) on revenue of $4bn (up 23%), as the company benefited from strong demand and rising prices for much of its output. The market will also be looking for comments on its recent acquisition of a controlling stake in a Russian ferrochrome producer and news of any expansion plans at its existing mines.
Jewellery group Signet also reports full year numbers on Wednesday. Investors have had a hard time as the share price has almost halved in the last year. Fears about declining consumer confidence have combined with a sharply rising gold price to squeeze margins.
Analysts expect the group to announce pre-tax profits of around $330m, down from over $400m last year. The UK division of of H Samuel and Ernest Jones stores was faring somewhat better than the US operations, which announced a slump in like-for-like sales of 8.6% in Q4. The group recently announced a series of price rises throughout its US stores aimed at clawing back some of the commodity cost pressure it had faced. A statement on current trading may show how successful that initiative has been.
Additional focus will be on whether the group intends to abandon its London listing and just retain the New York one. Between 65-75% of its sales are generated in the US and almost 50% of its shareholders are American-consultation is ongoing but no firm conclusion is expected yet.
April 9th, 2008 at 12:32 pm
ENRC delivered a decent set of results, although somewhat hampered by a sharply higher tax rate and rising cost base. Revs in line at $4.1bn. Outlook for modest volume increases, but strong price growth should benefit. Nothing concrete on Kazakhnys-who have asked the Takeover Panel to intervene to get ENRC to ‘put up or shut up’.
Signet delivered results in line $333.5m-though the statement was a bit more upbeat than I expected. Although ‘very challenging’ suggests that price increases in US haven’t completely killed off trade (l-f-l down 4%) and UK l-f-l sales are UP mid single digits. Aims to shift primary listing to the US. Stock up about 8%