GG now spends rainy days trading equities and currencies. He likes to use a combination of technical analysis and news flow to make trading decisions.
Another busy week for corporate results on both sides of the Atlantic-with some key updates due from the oil and banking sectors in the UK. However, before the shenanigans begins keep an eye out for Whitbread due to report on Monday.
Whitbread is no longer the beer monster it used to be, having disposed of its brewing interests some years back. Whilst it still retains ‘dining out experiences’ (I had the misfortune to go to one of their offerings recently-I assure you the word ‘experience’ didn’t cover the half of it!) under the Brewers Fayre and Beefeater names, it also operates the UK biggest budget hotel brand-Premier Inns and the Costa coffee shops.
When Whitbread last updated the market in February, it described trading as being ‘resilient’ with occupancy levels in Premier Inn at over 79% and positive (just) like-for-like sales in the Restaurants division. Analysts are looking for the group to produce sales of around £1.25bn and a profit close to £200m.
The group had been talking to Dubai International Capital, owners of the rival budget hotel chain Travelodge about a possible combination of the two-either by straight acquisition or perhaps a merger of the two businesses. These talks had been quietly shelved, although rumours have been recently circulating that discussions have restarted.
The market will need reassurance that the credit crunch isn’t starting to be felt in the ‘consumer discretionary spend’ areas that Whitbread operates in; what could be easier than not eating out quite as often, or perhaps opting for the canteen dishwater rather than a ‘Costalotta’ skinny latte for £4? Mind you I bet it isn’t a patch on this!

Both the oil majors BP and Royal Dutch Shell are due to report Q1 numbers on Tuesday morning in what could turn out to be a headache for oil analysts and a bonanza for City taxi drivers!
BP is due to shut down its main North Sea pipeline which transports almost half the UK’s crude production because of a 2 day strike at the neighbouring Grangemouth refinery. This is at a reputed cost of up to £50m per day-although talks are ongoing as I type. Fears about supply disruption have lead to a surge in UK petrol and natural gas prices this week as the shutdown approaches.
This little local difficulty won’t feature in the quarter’s results for BP-which analysts estimate should see revenues in excess of $80bn, suggesting earnings of around $0.28 per share. The concern remains that given some of its production arrangements are based on a $ revenue value rather than actual barrels, the company may be light on production estimates (higher oil price=less barrels needed to achieve the revenue).
At the recent AGM the CEO was keen to point out that the operational momentum which had begun to build at the end of 2007 had continued into the first quarter and should start to feed through to the P&L line in H2 and into 2009.
Possibly a bit early for this set of numbers, but analysts will be itching to upgrade forecasts if the message is reaffirmed.







April 28th, 2008 at 8:09 am
Decent set of numbers (£210.3m) out of Whitbread beating market expectations. Like-for-like +5.7% across the retained businesses and a positive outlook statement.
No signs of diminishing occupancy rates (actually higher in London) in Premier Inn, whilst Costa showed some surprising strength with l-f-l sales up 6.5%.
Even the pub restaurants continue to show positive l-f-l.
Stock up about 50p or 4%.
April 29th, 2008 at 9:00 am
Nice to see BP is coming up with the goods in an era of high oil prices!
a 48% jump in q1 profits to $6.6bn-though about $400m was from punting the petroleum products markets the right way-and there were other one-off gains of about $450m.
Nevertheless these are well above top end results and suggest thst CEO Tony Hayward’s restructuring plan was starting to take shape.
Results from RDS are also top end; both stocks are up 5%