FT has been trading full time from home for two years, with nothing but four kids and a beach to distract him .
He fills his spare time with weight training and rugby, though more coaching than playing these days.
FT mostly trades the forex markets and although he plays FTSE on occasions his bread and butter market is £$.
He likes to think that his technique is evolving but still hasn’t the temperament or money to back the big calls. He prefers to trade between 1 and 3 times a day, aiming to take regular small gains, but feels part of the evolution is in not dealing if the conditions don’t feel right.
A Bear With Small Balls
Today hasn’t turned out as planned. We were expecting a visit from our friendly local electrician, which would have meant regular interruptions to the power supply and my dealing screens. The battle plan was to try and thieve a few quid profit in early trade and hit the gym when the drilling began.
But like any self-respecting tradesman the guy didn’t show, claiming a mix up with the e-mails. By this time I’d grabbed a £78 profit by selling EURUSD, but missed out on the day’s big winner; selling GBPUSD in just a £1 bet could have netted £150.
Suddenly faced with a full day’s trading I succumbed and placed a small sell bet on FTSE. I might be too early, but the concerns are mounting up: confirmation of the HBOS rights issue, with the divi paid in shares, a much weaker CBI survey, lower than expected mortgage approvals, lower net lending……..and so it goes on.
Returning to the FTSE chart I produced last week (Always Look On The Bright Side Of Life) the breakout point is moving ever closer; a couple of breaks to the upside have so far been beaten back, but it remains a risk. In fact good chartists would probably favour a shot at higher prices, claiming FTSE is forming a bullish ascending triangle.
Me? I placed a £2 sell bet at 6106.5; the level was nothing special, it just looked like 6100 was about to cave in. This proved correct for a while, but it’s still hard work getting prices lower. Until I see a strong breakout signal my balls will remain pea-sized; I’ll only deal in small size and I’ll keep my stops tight. With the FTSE down at 6088 I brought my stop down to 6106. If I’m stopped out I’ll curse, but keep my cash for a better opportunity.
At least my bank shorts are looking in better shape today; Alliance & Leicester are only a couple of pence lower, but Barclays is currently 10p off last night’s level.
I’ve just read that, hot on the heels of Shire, United Business Media is catching the next ferry to Ireland for tax reasons. If this continues, the UK’s loss could be Ireland’s gain. And the future looks to be in chocolate chewing gum with Mars teaming up with Warren Buffet to buy Wrigleys.
Good luck to Man Yew tonight.
Happy Trading
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April 29th, 2008 at 2:05 pm
Any thoughts Ken or everything on hold till the Fed?
April 29th, 2008 at 10:04 pm
Yeah, I’m trying to keep my mouse away from the sell button, which is where my instincts say it should be. Got enough downside exposure with the price this close to my 6200 call. Would go long on a FTSE spreadbet above 6150, look to sell puts on a sell off. Thought we might finally be underway this afternoon but that resilience kicked back in again.
Pretty dull week so far, looking at the end of day numbers anyway. Could be jittery tomorrow, maybe some trading ops for the brave? Then we’ll see what the Fed has to say tomorrow evening. Quarter point or less could mean rate cuts near the end and prices could fall. More than .25% could mean things are even worse than we all thought — so prices could fall. If only it was that easy.
April 30th, 2008 at 6:33 am
yeah i wasn’t sure whether to kick myself for not taking profits on my FTSE short, or whoever was responsible for the monkey business around the close.I think the worst bit was spotting the turn in FTSE (using GG’s divergence method) but deciding this was a long-term play and kissing goodbye to 100 notes. Still hanging in there, but could get taken out in the silly half-hour this morning.
used the sell off to write a scrap of 5700 Puts, closer than I would like, but a sort of hedge against the market doing bugger-all. Will be around for the decision tonight but rugby committments mean I’ll miss the fun and games after.
April 30th, 2008 at 7:36 am
Certainly seems to be a consistent message coming from gold, oil and the dollar, ie there isn’t a big cut in the pipeline. My 30-week gold MA sell trigger is coming under pressure.
SIG back in play, with a bounce this morning off the support level in the mid 700s. I’d buy if this was Thursday morning!
On the short side, I like BBA which has managed to pull back from the recent sell-off and climb back over 150. Reckon we’ll see 140 again before 160 but need a few more pence before the risk/reward is right.
April 30th, 2008 at 9:02 am
Morning peeps
Trading statement out of BBA this morning looks tolerable; i.e. hasn’t got any worse (yet). Haven’t checked the rating yet to see if it is on recovery PE etc.
Another tentative U?
Cheap dollars, get your lovely cheap dollars!!!! Confess to being the other side of you on gold I’m afraid-sorry!
Couple of obs; some of the ag stocks have rattled back as commodity prices have fallen back; having listened to the POT conference call they seemed pretty chipper about life and were mooting another whacking great price increase ($220 per tonne) for customers in Q3 (not in forecasts, or their guidance for earnings).
Whether a potash company deserves a dotcom rating though, is another issue! Not entirely sure which fertilizer co. to go for. A South American company in which POT has a stake came out with cracking numbers last night, so might look for an entry today after the recent pullback.
Phoenix IT coming up to resistance, but still keen on a longer view
April 30th, 2008 at 3:28 pm
Whey Hey!
I’m off down the bank with my hooped shirt, mask and a bag marked ’swag’!
Normally I just stand outside with my Jack Russell on a bit of string for a couple of minutes and I can collect enough for a ham hock which keeps us both happy for the rest of the week!
Unusually for me something does what one hopes, but have just taken enough out of a decent morning session run in POT (over $6 bucks) to order us both fillet steak for the month!
And I’ve still got one running ‘for free’-but I’ll probably close that out before the Fed!
Some good numbers out of FSLR might get a few of the UK equivalents like Renesola going.