FT has been trading full time from home for two years, with nothing but four kids and a beach to distract him .
He fills his spare time with weight training and rugby, though more coaching than playing these days.
FT mostly trades the forex markets and although he plays FTSE on occasions his bread and butter market is £$.
He likes to think that his technique is evolving but still hasn’t the temperament or money to back the big calls. He prefers to trade between 1 and 3 times a day, aiming to take regular small gains, but feels part of the evolution is in not dealing if the conditions don’t feel right.
Catching Falling Pound Notes
I wonder what bet size 1000 traders would have needed to get Sterling 200 pips lower. Cos that’s what 1000 bored people in the street managed.
This morning my screens greeted me with a chart of Sterling tanking off; by 7.15 it was already 80 pips from where I left it last night and by half-past nine the rate had dropped to $1.9550.
All this was because 1000 people were feeling a bit p*ssed off with life. Yes, the UK’s Nationwide Consumer Confidence index (where they survey 1000 people who’ve nothing better to do) produced a reading of 70, the lowest since it began in 2004.
And guess what? If the girl from Nationwide had popped round and asked me how I felt this morning she could have put another tick in the ‘p*ssed off’ box. Worse still, it was my own stupid fault for trying to catch falling pound notes.
I can’t argue my way out of this one; it was a classic case of ‘I’ve just made money, therefore I’m in tune with the market.’ Having already made £60 selling £2 of EURUSD I checked out the GBPUSD chart. It was looking massively oversold on the 10 and 30-minute charts, and besides, it had been trading in a range for yonks, with $1.96-1.9620 acting as good support.
As the price seemed to be steadying I jumped in with a £10 bet, buying at $1.9633. I placed my stop below the $1.96 support at $1.9595 to make doubly sure. But all I did was increase the loss, this market was going lower whether I liked it or not. I was stopped out at $1.9594 for a loss of £390. OUCH!
Hey, but on the plus side, I’m mighty glad I had a stop in place. Look at where the GBPUSD rate fell to!
Later on I sold EURUSD again, this time in a tenner. My limit order to buy back half my short worked fine, but I didn’t have anything in place for the next downward move. This move coincided with my downward move to grab a coffee, and by the time I’d had my caffeine fix the market had recovered and stopped me out for a gain of £169. Sum total of my day’s work is a loss of £180.
Still, at least the sun’s shining.
Note: Yep, I was being sensationalist about the effect of the Nationwide Survey. Much of the damage was done by overnight comments from a Fed speaker suggesting that rates in the US might have to rise to combat inflation. On top of that, both the UK manufacturing and industrial numbers were well below market expectations. Things aren’t getting better, but don’t tell the equity market.
Looks like there won’t be a housing crisis in Ireland for much longer. There’s going to be plenty of demand from workers migrating from the UK. Latest possibles in the queue to borrow the ferry timetable are Aberdeen Asset Management, BRIT Insurance and Smith & Nephew. I wonder if they’ve got any decent rugby players for Declan.
Happy Trading
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May 7th, 2008 at 4:00 pm
Damn, I was hoping Rightmove might announce a move into the Irish housing market, which would really put the skids under the share price. Not that it needs much more help, with bad news clobbering it every day. Back below 400 today, so my short at 447 is looking good. This one’s going down to that last low around 350 (and then….).
BBA short pulled back to breakeven but a small rise today leaves it looking a but pinkish (OK, in the red).
As for my FTSE 6200 call. Um, oh dear.
May 7th, 2008 at 4:14 pm
Hi Ken,
yeah I assumed your Rightmove short was offsetting the FTSE Call. there’s a dull amber light starting to flash on my 6375 Calls, but surely the market’s due a bit of a correction soon. Wrote some June 6600 and 6650 Calls (small premium, but not so tight round the scrotum). The bigger view is when to open a short on FTSE; the only certainty is that I’ll miss the top.
Massive,massive game tonight. Newcastle, Wasps. If the yarrow boys could sneak this one I can look forward to a Bath home tie in the semis. Sadly, I reckon Wasps will be too determined to let this slip.
May 8th, 2008 at 7:43 am
Hope you had some money on Wasps but, if not, you can give Cipriani a kick next time you see him.
Good start for the bears today but where is the support going to kick in? Round number bounce around 6200 or are we sliding all the way back to the support near 6150?
May 8th, 2008 at 8:22 am
No, nothing on Wasps, all down to Saturday’s games; Bath need to win at Gloucester coz Wasps will bag 5 points verses Leeds. Still watching and waiting on FTSE, not convinced it’s run its course yet. Setbacks still appear to be buying opportunities and we know there’s spare cash on the touchline. Dealt in Kiwi last night, for a change.
May 8th, 2008 at 12:32 pm
Blimey very esoteric fx pairs-admittedly the rate increases look like they are now starting to bite in the NZ economy.
Diageo statment looks OK, but not an upgrade. Reiterates forecast of 9% opeerating profits growth for full yaer to June, based on net sales up 7% in the 9 months to March.
An in-line statement = no fireworks in the stock-marginally easier down a few coppers.
May 12th, 2008 at 9:21 am
So the fx traders have got the PPI message and pushed up the pound — but what’s with the equity traders? Everything’s in place for an almighty fall but equities remain incredibly resilient (and time is running out for the May options!).
May 12th, 2008 at 11:12 am
Huh, don’t talk to me about May options. Should be safe from the action, but the only months where I earned less were August and January. And why are the retailers doing so well today? Is it all down to the bid talk on DSG?