Sorry guys, this isn’t an expose on the latest half-dressed celeb getting out of a car, though there is a little something at the end of this blog. I decided to broaden my horizons and place a non-rugby bet on the land where men are men and sheep have a worried expression (no! New Zealand, not Wales).

The New Zealand currency (the Kiwi) has had a torrid time over the past couple of months. Record interest rates of 8.25% have made the Kiwi a popular carry-trade for traders selling the Japanese Yen. But with high rates having a predictable slowdown effect on the economy attention’s now turning to when the central bank will start to cut rates. Last night a report showed that employment had dropped by the most in 19 years, bringing forward calls for a rate cut in the third quarter of the year.

Yesterday the NZDUSD rate ended a 3-day rally, which had fizzled out short of the downtrend line. As the price subsided it broke below the 21 and 100-day moving averages. “Why not?” I thought, “The currency looks decidedly last week’s fashion and it was a different way of backing the Dollar.” I was due to be working overnight on an article so would be able to keep an eye on my trade over the employment report.

As this bet was definitely in the novelty category, I decided to cut my size to a £2 bet, but with a wider stop loss. I sold at $0.7817 with a stop at $0.7860, just above the afternoon’s high. The overnight release of employment numbers saw the Kiwi plunge, allowing me to close off £1 at $0.7782. I must say that my writing came a distant second to watching the £ signs click up on my remaining bet.

I trailed my stop down with admirable restraint until it was eventually hit at 1.30 in the morning. The trade closed at $0.7735 for a total profit of £117 on a £2 bet. Lovely jubley, now about that article….

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After yesterday’s disaster in GBPUSD I needed to get straight back on the horse to get my confidence back. I was nervous of buying Sterling against the recent trend, preferring to wait for an opportunity to sell it. My chance came when it broke above support, but failed to hold it. I placed a £10 sell bet at $1.9585, with a stop order at $1.9605 and a limit order to buy back £5 at $1.9575.

The move down allowed me to lock in £50, bringing my stop down to breakeven. I set a further limit order to buy back £2 at $1.9565, but it wasn’t to be. There was little enthusiasm ahead of the two interest rate announcements and I was stopped out for a gain of £50.

Ah, now the ‘peeking down under’ theme has a sting in the tail. Not Britney, Paris or Jordan, but the Austrian national rugby team. After being hammered 48-0 by Lithuania they decided that, like Britney, Paris and Jordan, you don’t need to be talented to get noticed.

Happy Trading