GG now spends rainy days trading equities and currencies. He likes to use a combination of technical analysis and news flow to make trading decisions.
Investors will be keen to see what progress is being made at Premier Foods on Tuesday after the group was forced to cut its dividend and announce a refinancing deal back in March.
Premier, (whose brands include Hovis, Mr Kipling cakes & Branston Pickle) has been hit hard by the ‘double whammy’ of a rise in commodity prices and being deeply indebted at a time when lenders are particularly nervous.
Rising UK wheat prices alone added an extra £40m to the group’s input costs for 2007, whilst competitor Warburton’s exerted additional pressure on the group by keeping prices steady at a time when Premier sought to raise the price of a Hovis loaf to recover some of its higher input costs.
Analysts are hoping that Premier may have been able to recover some of its market share as Warburton’s now has to contend with strong price rises in Canadian wheat since the beginning of the year.
An additional loan and working capital arrangement with its banks on the £1.6bn of debt (the JP Getty quote “if you owe the bank a $100 thats your problem, but if you owe the bank $100m that’s the bank’s problem” seems appropriate here!) it has amassed in a number of acquisition deals gives the group some additional breathing space.
However, the group has recently put its French bakery business Sofrapain up for sale in a move designed to reduce the debt burden and other parts of the group are also rumoured to be on the block.

On Wednesday supermarket group J Sainsbury’s is expected to post a decent set of results as the transformation under CEO Justin King continues. Analysts are looking for profits of around £480m on sales of a little over £17bn and for reassurance that Sainsbury continues to show good like-for-like sales growth whilst also pinching market share.
Of more interest may be what key shareholder intentions might be. Qatari based Delta 2, which holds 25%, walked away from a bid 6 months ago and is now free to bid again, should it wish to. Activist shareholder and property tycoon Robert Tchenguiz is reported to hold just under 5% and is nursing a significant loss. He has called for the board to restructure its balance sheet, leveraging its substantial property portfolio, perhaps by splitting the group into a property firm and a supermarket business.
Sainsbury has gone part way to addressing the balance sheet issue, announcing a £1.2bn deal with British Land in March, seeking to ‘add value’ by extensions and developments to 38 of its stores.
Whether Mr. Tchenguiz and Delta 2 believes that is sufficient remains to be seen-despite Mr. King having delivered 13 successive quarters of like-for-like growth, an extra £2.7bn of sales and a doubling in profits over the 3 year turnaround strategy he has successfully implemented.
From here, however Sainsbury will have to run hard to stand still; the launch last month of its new homeware and furniture range under the Tu brand is one attempt to increase non-food sales by £1bn by March 2010.

May 13th, 2008 at 10:31 am
Shock horror!!
Premier Foods has issued a decent trading statement, (sales up 6.3%, profit in line with expectations) in which it said it has appeared to have recovered the higher commodity prices it was paying through higher bread prices. I think iIsaw an (admittedly fancy) Hovis loaf on sale in Tesco for just under £2, so I can well believe it!
Cost cutting comes in the announcement that 7 factories are likely to shut by the end of the year.
One area of (modest) concern is higher energy prices (all those hot ovens!) which the company may seek to recoup through further price increases.
I’m not an economist but isn’t conventional thinking that bread has low price elasticity?
At £2 a pop I’m not sure…..inferior goods and trading down here we come!
May 14th, 2008 at 9:06 am
Good results from Sainsburys as profits hit £488m. Like-for-like sales up 3.9% , so both numbers are in line with expectations.
Trading ‘tough’ although Justin King (who gets £6.5m for his transformational work so far) suggests that the next phase is from recovery to growth.
Addressing some of the issues? A property revaluation (handy for any takeover bid!) is likely to suggest a portfolio worth £8bn, new property division setup and a push into non-food, with 50% of new space devoted to non-food. I gues we’ll see how things pan out against Tesco & Asda’s well established non-food offer.
Stock off a squeak after a good run, down about 8p.