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Garden Gnome spent many years as a small-cap fund manager before his need to to spend more time with his lettuces got the better of him.
GG now spends rainy days trading equities and currencies. He likes to use a combination of technical analysis and news flow to make trading decisions.
Allied Irish Bank and British Airways
Posted by Garden Gnome on May 14, 2008

Tin hat time again-certainly if you are an investor in the banking sector!

Hot on the heels of Bradford & Bingley’s emergency cash call on shareholders, Allied Irish Bank pops its head above the parapet when it issues a trading update on Thursday. Quite whether it gets picked off is open to a bit of debate.

After its recent AGM, some brokers downgraded full year expectations, based upon further (downward) revaluations of AIB’s trading portfolio. This was based on the assumptions used by UK counterparts to value assets in their recent statements.

Conditions in the Irish business appear to have deteriorated recently, so a higher bad debt charge of 0.3% and lower interest margin is expected as the group grapples with higher funding costs, both in the retail and wholesale markets. The strength of the euro against sterling will impact the results of the UK business, whilst the Polish operations recently announced a decline in Q1 profits of 6.7% as fund management fees declined in the wake of falls in global stock markets.

The Capital Markets division is expected to have taken some hits on asset writedowns and further ‘impairment’ charges-though the magnitude is not clear, some analysts suggest it could be up to €100m.

6 Month Chart of Allied Irish

It all adds up being a bit early for me to be dipping my toe into the sector just yet, but for those of less nervous disposition and taking a long term view there could be some bargains out there.

And keep ‘em peeled for a host of trading statements from amonsgt others, BT, Barclays, National Grid, and Thomas Cook.

Oh and there is a trading statement due from some bookmaker called Paddy Power too!

Come fly with me………On second thoughts, better not-as your bags will end up in Milan (if you’re lucky) and you’ll be kipping on the floor of T5!

Despite rising cost pressures British Airways is expected to announce a decent set of full year numbers on Friday. Analysts are looking for a pre-tax profit of about £880m, up over 40%.

Actually, the T5 fiasco won’t show up in these results as they came right at the end of the accounting year, but a decline in passenger numbers of 7.9% last month suggests that some significant fallout should be expected this year. Estimates vary, but figures of above £100m in terms of damage to the brand have been suggested. As well as the T5 debacle, BA has also indicated that despite a prudent hedging policy, its fuel bill is likely to rise by about £400m this year, to over £2.5bn.

6 Month Chart of British Airways

So the company may be in the unusual position of announcing a reasonable set of historic results, whilst at the same time issuing a profit warning for the current year. Long suffering shareholders hoping for their first dividend since 2001, might see paradise postponed-again!

Rumours abound that headhunters have been tasked to find a possible ‘heir apparent’ for CEO Willie Walsh, (who perhaps did not have his finest hour back in March), in the newly created role of Chief Operations Officer. BALPA (the airline pilot’s union) have been uttering veiled threats about ‘lack of co-operation’ i.e a strike, unless changes are made at a very senior level-though this is probably more to do with the creation of BA’s own non-unionised, low-cost airline Open Skies, than with bumbling CEO’s.

In the meantime, whilst waiting for the results-which I am assured will depart on time on Friday, check this out…not many CEO’s have a computer game named after them!

2 Responses to “Allied Irish Bank and British Airways”

  1. GG Says:

    Seems that AIB confounds the doubting Thomases like me.

    Still target kow single digit earnigs growth, euro is an issue knocking 3% off earnings, no horror stories in asset writedowns, though not sure how prudent these are based on screen prices in an inactive market!

    Cost of funding is begiining to impact on margins, however Tier 1 captial ratio (the ‘benchmark’ most banks like to measure up to) is expected to be 7.4% at the end of 2008, very similar to those reported by Barclays today. Stock breathes sigh of relef and is up a smidge

  2. GG Says:

    And don’t forget the Ladbroke trading statement -on the back of a decent Paddy Power one today.

    Looks like brokers will be upgrading PP numbers

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