FT has been trading full time from home for two years, with nothing but four kids and a beach to distract him .
He fills his spare time with weight training and rugby, though more coaching than playing these days.
FT mostly trades the forex markets and although he plays FTSE on occasions his bread and butter market is £$.
He likes to think that his technique is evolving but still hasn’t the temperament or money to back the big calls. He prefers to trade between 1 and 3 times a day, aiming to take regular small gains, but feels part of the evolution is in not dealing if the conditions don’t feel right.
Equities Push Higher On Bailout Talk
Hi folks,
‘Bang, crash, ouch!’
I can hear the sound of heads being banged together far away in the US. In early US time there’s been an increasing level of excitement (relief) that a bailout deal will be signed, sealed and delivered by the end of the week. And it’s cost me a penny or two today after attempting one too many short bets on FTSE.
The day started OK; I made a few bob on some short FTSE bets, but missed out on the full potential as I didn’t want to hang around in the market. A few times I cursed my cautious approach, but it was fully justified by the action in early US trading. The rumour mill was working at full capacity with talk of an agreed deal in Congress and/or an emergency interest rate cut. Whilst the latter seemed spurious, to say the least, there was always a chance that rebel senators had been ‘persuaded’ to agree to a deal; the market certainly thought so.
With nothing concrete being announced I chanced my arm with a £5 short bet on FTSE at 5149, but ended up scrambling to close out at 5180 for a stinging £155 loss. Ouch, that’s put me in negative territory for the day.
It’s interesting that the most recent comments this afternoon have suggested that they’re some way off any kind of deal, and yet the equity markets are refusing to sell off. It’s damned tempting to whack a short bet on at 5200, but having got it wrong earlier I’m not looking to gate-crash the bull’s party just yet.
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We might get another relief rally if some sort of bailout is agreed, but the economic background is becoming a murkier shade of brown. Yesterday’s worse than expected US existing home sales were followed by today’s new home sales, down 11.5% on the month. And did you catch the General Electric announcement? It slashed its earnings guidance and announced a halt to its buy-back programme.
The other end of the rumour mill was busy churning out stories of Fortis having liquidity problems; the bank strongly denied this, but then that’s the standard response until proved otherwise.
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So, looking back at yesterday, I was waiting to trade a breakout in the EURUSD rate (Short Ban Hasn’t Helped The Banks). I got my breakout, but it was hardly worth the bother. I mentioned that I needed convincing and would wait for a closing candle before dealing. Most of the action happened while I was stood on the touchline waiting to get on. My breakout point was $1.47; the price rallied to $1.4730 almost immediately. I bought a retracement to $1.4728 and scrambled out at ‘40 for a £60 profit on a £5 bet.
I can’t deny there’s still movement in the currencies, but I’m finding my usual pairs tough to trade at the moment. Ah well, there’s always tomorrow.
Happy Trading
September 26th, 2008 at 12:23 am
Sorry am doing the “night owl” again - but just heard WAMU officially now bankcrupt… the sh*t piles higher!
September 26th, 2008 at 12:29 am
FDIC have taken over - what ever that means?
September 26th, 2008 at 12:41 am
Hi FT - have been trading like a madman over the last 2 days long/short on the FTSE - just trying to find my range - have hammered in about 40 trades - mainly for 20/30 quid at the time so pretty much small postions but so far so good - also keep poping over to the $/Y for a quick short on any bounce
cheers
S
September 26th, 2008 at 6:23 am
Hi Simon,
I’m much the same as you at the moment, making olts of lttle bits and then the occassional couple of hundred…….but, they all count. Personally, I don’t want to be left in anything overnight at the moment as Hanky Panky and his merry crew could get up to anything. Although news out this morning looks like the talks have stalled, and may have to start all over again. Lets just hope that the part where Paulson gets total immunity is binned as soon as possible.
As a comment I saw last night said that if Paulson didn’t see this derivative problem coming then he shouldn’t have been Treasury Secretary, and if he did he he should be as accountable as everyone else.
GP
September 26th, 2008 at 7:02 am
Where’s Aaron?
September 26th, 2008 at 8:05 am
Morning guys,
Simon, I was up working O/N on Tuesday and the body can’t take more than onc a week so I missed all the fun last night. I did wake up a happy bunny though. I’d sold FTSe far too early (again) at 5170 and after watching it go into the red last night saw a tasty profit this morning. I closed half the position down as I’m meeting my old fixed interest team for lunch and who know’s what news/rumours will be flying around.
No idea on Aaron (if you’re there mate stick up a post with how you’re doing). missed the short euro trade because I was too busy watching equities. Still, steady profits keep the account in good shape.
Ken, got some 4600 puts I’m not too relaxed about.
September 26th, 2008 at 8:08 am
I took off all my index longs, except for the Dow long I’ve been running since 10687, when it began to look v dicey around 8pm last night -still looking for a bounce on news of a confirmed bailout though. Interestingly my longstanding equity long positions, Barclays, Workspace Group, Scottish and Southern, Firstgroup are looking pretty firm - and less wobbly than recently.
JP Morgan to take over WaMu’s deposits, apparently.
September 26th, 2008 at 9:29 am
Hey guys,
Carried out a trade on the 18th and am in need of ideas on where to go on it now. I shorted LLoyds at £2.76 and went long on HBOS at £2.04 but in the same amounts. At lunch time on day 1, HBOS had risen 44% while Lloyds rose 1%. Would have taken profits and ran but was on hols and missed my chance.Lloyds currently trading at £2.62 while HBOS trading at £1.79. What do I do? Do I sit tight or close out positions for a relatively small loss with such volitility in the markets?
Suggestions please!!
CM
September 26th, 2008 at 3:49 pm
Still in it Gazza!!! … well, having a flutter now and again. Trying to get a bit of a fund up the moment so to say goodbye to work for good, but i am still paper trading like a goodun! What about you, are you still making the markets your bitch?