FT has been trading full time from home for two years, with nothing but four kids and a beach to distract him .
He fills his spare time with weight training and rugby, though more coaching than playing these days.
FT mostly trades the forex markets and although he plays FTSE on occasions his bread and butter market is £$.
He likes to think that his technique is evolving but still hasn’t the temperament or money to back the big calls. He prefers to trade between 1 and 3 times a day, aiming to take regular small gains, but feels part of the evolution is in not dealing if the conditions don’t feel right.
Dollar Strengthens As Bailout Talks Stall
Morning folks,
A few night owls profited over-night as yesterday’s ‘done deal’ appeared to be far from done. The added flavour of WaMu going belly up saw equity markets slide back down the big fat snake to the start position. I was pre-occupied with the opening call on equities and missed the early Dollar strength, but my little Italian mate helped me to make some beer money for lunchtime.
Yesterday I opened a short bet in FTSE at the lowly price of 5170; I was sorely tempted to increase the size at 5200, but at the time I turned my screens off equities were still Hunky Dory so I decided to leave it till today. The net result was that I missed that chance, but my earlier bet was now showing a profit. I closed half out at 5120 and decided to let the balance run.
At 5100 things were looking set for a return to the lows so when I had to nip out I placed a stop at 5144, just as a precaution. I wasn’t out long, just long enough to see my bet closed out for a reduced profit. I’m out for lunch with my old Fixed Interest team so I’m keeping my bets off the table until later.
I missed the early sell off in EURUSD, but when the price started to rally on no particular news I thought I’d whack in a Fibonacci tool. For those of you not familiar with this technical analysis and who think he’s Chelsea’s latest signing, check out Fibonacci And The Bonking Bunnies.
The bounce in EURUSD pretty much ended at the 38.2% retracement. I waited to check that the candle closed below the level, and also for the return below $1.46 before selling a fiver at $1.4592. This was just before going out so I set a limit to close for 10 pips and a stop loss the other side of $1.46, in case I was wrong. On this deal I returned to a £50 profit, which should take care of the drinks at lunchtime.
The US session could be a bit lively with GDP numbers at 1.30, University of Michigan at just before 3pm, and a slightly more than pressing need for the politicians to sort out the bailout. For me, the sun’s making up for its summer break and the biggest decision is whether to wear my shorts down the pub.
Hey, if you’re looking to kill some time before the US open, hot off the paddypowertrader press is a new piece, Is The FX Carry Trade Dead? This is an excellent and interesting piece and well worth a read.
Happy Trading
September 26th, 2008 at 12:08 pm
Hey FT,
Take care if you go near your dealing screen after spending a few hours in the sunshine.
I’ve been reading about risk profile recently and apparently individuals have no such thing. At least not a fixed risk profile. Instead your attitude to risk constantly fluctuates according to all sorts of stimuli. One such stimulus is the weather. In particular, someone trading after spending time in the sunshine accepts significantly more risk than a trader who has been shut in a windowless room.
So hoped you enjoyed the sunshine and that you’re not feeling brave.
September 26th, 2008 at 1:35 pm
So is spreadbetting going to be banned or what? That would be baaaaaad news!
September 26th, 2008 at 3:32 pm
hi guys , just back froma very sunny pub garden. Ken, you could be right; I came back and opened a small short bet on FTSE. The rationale is that it’s a bit of weekend insurance against my 4600 puts, just in case we open very badly on Monday.At the moment i’m just offside, but with wasps, leicester on the box tonight i’m not going to be glued to this particular screen.
Aaron, good to hear from you mate. not aware spread bettings going to be banned. There’s loads more to trade than just the financials.ah, i’m onside now, have I done enough?
September 26th, 2008 at 3:46 pm
Yeah, I came to a similar conclusion.
Even though I think there’s more FTSE downside, I had a strong urge to close my short positions to avoid my profits evaporating on the news that must surely come from the US.
But I didn’t, cos I’ve got 4400 puts (and 1010 on the S&P) and we really might be looking at numbers like that if they tell the banker “no deal”. And I expect any upward move on “good” news on the bailout to be short lived (but have to remember that trading what I think instead of what I see is a sure way to penury).
September 26th, 2008 at 4:19 pm
Hi ken,
change of plan; I took a quick turn on the short position and a hit on half my 4600 puts. reasoned that the loss on the puts is less than a standard weekend rally, if market dumps I’m less exposed. If bailout works, would still expect another chance at the puts. Then again, if the market is higher before the match or at half-time i might re-open another short. too much sun!
have a good weekend.
September 26th, 2008 at 6:58 pm
Hi Ft
hope you enjoy your rugby - i don’t normally watch the club matches - but that is normally a good one - more of an international follower myself - especially anything to do with twickers!
on the markets I am not sure what to do - for a weekend trade - if you guys are worried regarding a big drop monday i could be attempted on the short route - kept out of it most of the day - but was interested in the JJB sports story - i reckon hedge funds are looking for new victims - so thought sod it - put a nice fat short on that one about 60p - not even going to bother with a stop loss
cheers
S
September 26th, 2008 at 7:18 pm
Decided on £3 quid short but have paid £6 for a guarenteed stop loss of 50 points from where the market closes so max loss would be £150
September 29th, 2008 at 3:14 pm
Hi guys,
you must be laughing if you carried your shorts over the weekend. Mildly peeved at closing out the short, but mighty relieved at halving my 4600 puts. The Leicester Wasps game wa a good advert for football, as rugby goes it was rubbish. On saturday though, I was at the Rec to see a great Bath performance, scoring 5 tries, including a lost prop on the wing!
I said I wasn’t going to get sucked into a short position down at these levels, but the longer it persists the more tempting it’s getting. Then it will rally a couple of hundred. Interesting to see the open positions on the PPT home page. They’re been long equities nearly all day. Ouch!