FT has been trading full time from home for two years, with nothing but four kids and a beach to distract him .
He fills his spare time with weight training and rugby, though more coaching than playing these days.
FT mostly trades the forex markets and although he plays FTSE on occasions his bread and butter market is £$.
He likes to think that his technique is evolving but still hasn’t the temperament or money to back the big calls. He prefers to trade between 1 and 3 times a day, aiming to take regular small gains, but feels part of the evolution is in not dealing if the conditions don’t feel right.
For Once, It Is Not All About The Payrolls
Hi folks,
It’s a bit rich the UK government giving the Irish banks stick for tempting money away from Barclays, Lloyds et all; do they remember Northern Rock, that UK bank with high savings rates and a government guarantee? It’s all very well the Rock turning savers away yesterday, but this has been going on for months now. Yesterday’s venture into the bull’s paddock (Vix Fear Index Boosts Equities) was amusing; the FTSE Index fell 100 points while I was writing the article and a further 70 after it hit the screens.
I may be being too cynical, but I wonder whether last night’s collapse in the Dow was brought on by the men in sunglasses, the financial version of the CIA. Was this a timely reminder of what would happen if voters didn’t do what’s best for America. Anyway, I was suspicious enough to use the drop to close out my bear positions, albeit for a loss.
At the moment I’m flat and open to the idea of a relief rally on a successful vote. But I’m resigned to spending too much of my Friday evening waiting for a delayed vote. The trouble is, I daren’t have a break before hand, just in case of news that the vote’s been postponed (code for, we’ve still got to twist some arms).
Interesting that this morning’s news of a tie-up between Wachovia and Wells Fargo provoked no more than a knee-jerk rise in equities which held for about the same amount of time as the announcement.
Here’s a chart worth knowing about:
Now the chart here doesn’t go back far enough so you’ll have to trust me on this. The line shows long-term going back to 2002 and it’s been broken. As with all these things the actual number will depend on the different data used and the thickness of the line drawn. But a chart from one of the ‘big boys’ put the cross at $1.3885. I wouldn’t let it get in the way too much today, but a lot of serious traders will be watching for a weekly close below that level. If they get this then the next chart point could be the 200-day moving average at around $1.34.
I’m dashing out to get my supplies for a long and busy afternoon.
Happy Trading, and be careful out there
Just in
Payrolls -159,000 (revision-84k to -73k)
Unemployment rate 6.1%
Manufacturing Payrolls 0.2%, 3.4% yy
October 3rd, 2008 at 12:43 pm
1.34!! Oh yes. I put something on my blog back in June about euro heading for parity with USD…I’m, broadly speaking, still disposed to hold that view. With all the focus on the US the utter carnage in the european economy (particularly southern and eastern europe) hasn’t really filtered through to the extent that it should have, in my view..
October 3rd, 2008 at 3:30 pm
Hmm,
a fairly restrained close for FTSE ahead of the vote. does this mean the big boys bought enough the other day, or they’ve seen that this won’t solve the real economy problem?
October 3rd, 2008 at 5:06 pm
Who suggested the woman got up to speak? We could have had the vote, and tea by now!
October 3rd, 2008 at 5:29 pm
263-171 for… and the sell off begins
October 3rd, 2008 at 5:51 pm
wow….EXTREME volatility. Pleased about gold though
October 3rd, 2008 at 5:52 pm
well I went long into the vote and got out with some drinks money, then went short and made a bit more. let the weekend begin (with a flat position).
October 3rd, 2008 at 6:08 pm
glad I had a wide stop. still long….
gold a go-go!
October 3rd, 2008 at 6:32 pm
well, that’s me done for the day. Stops triggered at 11500. Out now. will wait to see what happens when the dust settles.
October 3rd, 2008 at 7:45 pm
went short again at 4891.rate cuts over the weekend?
October 3rd, 2008 at 8:59 pm
Well that was interesting. Dow closes at 10325, does this mean we’re heading for sub 10,000 next week? I did my usual buy at the end of the day of a big drop at 10350, so going by my track record we’re in for a fall on Monday. Have a good weekend folks, thanks for all the advice, its managing to keep me ahead despite my best efforts.
Emotional Fish
October 4th, 2008 at 7:33 pm
Lots of rumours and rumbles about emergency co-ordinated rate cuts. My hedgie friend says it’s rate cuts or total armageddon. The plummet on Friday took him totally by surprise too - in fact I think I ruined his evening - he choked on his dinner when I told him what had happened…! He’d shut up shop and gone home at 5.30 with a grin on his face. So some of the serious money was betting that Friday should have seen a rally.
All very nasty. Will try to have some more considered thoughts in the next 24 hours. I was interested in the fact that a) the yen hasn’t done it’s flight to safety thing and b) gold didn’t head for the sky and c) not all US equities got uniformly hammered on Friday - some of my long positions still reasonably healthy. But it ain’t looking at all good.
aargh,
October 5th, 2008 at 10:43 pm
US futures down another 150 points… I reckon the rate cut plan will be implemented this week -maybe tomorrow before the market opens in the US
October 6th, 2008 at 11:57 pm
Sitting up watching my long USD and short EUR positions head for the stratosphere. Which is some compensation for the destruction I expect to be wrought on my long equity positions when the market opens tomorrow. It’s getting extremely dangerous. If we don’t manage a rally out of this in the next few days, FTSE at 4000 and Dow at 9000 or below actually looks more than possible, it looks likely. Very very bad.