FT has been trading full time from home for two years, with nothing but four kids and a beach to distract him .
He fills his spare time with weight training and rugby, though more coaching than playing these days.
FT mostly trades the forex markets and although he plays FTSE on occasions his bread and butter market is £$.
He likes to think that his technique is evolving but still hasn’t the temperament or money to back the big calls. He prefers to trade between 1 and 3 times a day, aiming to take regular small gains, but feels part of the evolution is in not dealing if the conditions don’t feel right.
Another Day Of Capitulation In Equity Markets
Hi folks,
For me there was no consolation in calling last night’s Dow close below 9000 (US Equities Lead The Way Lower). In fact if it wasn’t so serious the timing would have been hilarious. I’d set my alarm to shout at me just before 8.30 last night; the cunning plan being to catch the closing sell-off. But in the best traditions the market had got there before me and was already several hundred points adrift. It could have been a mega-trade, but instead I’d been watching TV with my son. Aagghh!!!
This is a brief and weary blog. I stayed up right through the night trading against a dying option position and there’s nothing sensible I can add today. Even more than usual, the market isn’t about economic numbers, valuations or technical levels. It’s all about who’s got to sell it.
I had probably my best day ever in terms of trading profits, but they count for nothing as they were dwarfed by losses on my option positions. To be honest, I was caught out by the inconvenient timing of the Dow’s collapse; when I left the office everything was OK, when I returned I had my own personal Armageddon and it’s pretty tricky to recover from that position. Well done to all of you who wisely kept flat positions.
Perhaps I was being naive this morning, but I was expecting more of a bounce than we had. I thought that with such a gap from the closing levels there’d be some interest in the upside. As dawn broke I was long of £1 Dow and £6 FTSE and, yes, I made a reasonable turn on the bets. But I was hoping for a bit more reward for my troubles.
Expect an afternoon of jumpy markets and plenty of rumours. I guess it’s worth being awake over lunch time just in case we get some really panicky rate cuts, but by now I reckon the central banks will have got the message. It’s all too late and this selling will happen no matter what.
The US is closed for a holiday on Monday and one of the rumours was that all markets would be closed for the day to allow the men in suits to work out another cunning plan.
I’m off now to lick my wounds. Happy Trading and be very careful out there.
October 10th, 2008 at 11:20 am
Following the problems in the financial sector in the UK, uncertainty has now hit Japan.
In the last 7 days Origami Bank has folded, Sumo Bank has gone belly up and Bonsai Bank announced plans to cut some of its branches.
Yesterday, it was announced that Karaoke Bank is up for sale and will likely go for a song, while today shares in Kamikaze Bank were suspended after they nose-dived.
Samurai Bank is soldiering on following sharp cutbacks, Ninja Bank is reported to have taken a hit, but they remain in the black.
Furthermore, 500 staff at Karate Bank got the chop and analysts report that there is something fishy going on at Sushi Bank where it is feared that staff may get a raw deal.
October 10th, 2008 at 1:41 pm
Hi FT,
I know how you feel, I had my bad day last Monday when I had to close the long positions that I’d put in last Friday to hedge my short positions, prior to the bailout plan on Friday evening.
After taking some profits this week on the short side, I closed my trading window yesterday lunchtime and haven’t been tempted back again. The trouble now is that we all believe that there will be some sort of bounce and now I’m not going short or long. These markets can seriously damage your wealth.
Spoke to a trading friend last night to talk about the crashing markets. He confessed that he’d gone long £2 on the DOW at 8:30 and was standing at -£700 by 9pm. Haven’t spoken to him today!
As I said in a post a few weeks ago, I no longer try to find bottoms or tops, it’s too damaging to your balance. If I can’t force myself to trade in the direction of the trend, then I’m just not trading. These markets show absolutely no respect for technical analysis, support lines or anything else at the moment. This is just a case of people getting whatever they can for their shares.
GP
October 10th, 2008 at 2:08 pm
HI FT
really sorry to hear that - and if someone with your experience/wisdom can’t make much sense of this market, what chance is there for the rest of us? It’s utter carnage out there, and it’s got so, so bad that almost no-one is willing to risk buying anything. This could really be the wall street crash mark 2. I think the best thing is just to leave it all alone. I’m not selling any of the equities I’ve bought over the last few weeks, just going to hold them and be prepared for them to be seriously underwater for the next 6 -12 or more months.
October 10th, 2008 at 2:23 pm
Cheers guys,
Mrs FT was pretty philosophical pointing out that I’d been making good money month after month and it was the nature of the job to give some back, And that these are pretty unusual times cos she’s seen it on the news. Have good weekends.
October 10th, 2008 at 2:27 pm
Just got back after being out since early morning. Looks like things have recovered a bit although a glance at the chart suggests it hasn’t been a smooth ride.
Way I look at it is that capitalism in the last 100 years has survived two world wars, the rise and fall of communism and fascism, the Cold War, 2 nuclear bombs and the Cuban Missile Crisis, numerous natural disasters, several crashes and economic cycles. One day we’ll all look back on today and, well, maybe not laugh but wish we could still buy FTSE at sub-4000.
For now, the only answer is to get away from the screens and enjoy the sunshine outside. The markets will still be there next week.
October 10th, 2008 at 3:23 pm
Hi FT,
A philosophical wife, you must be the lucky one!
GP
October 10th, 2008 at 3:34 pm
Yeah, it shocked me. It’s not normal.
October 10th, 2008 at 3:35 pm
Hi folks,
TheCooler: Excellent stuff! That’s rare; a sense of humour in current market conditions.
FT: Sickened. No doubt you’ll be back on top next week.
October 10th, 2008 at 4:04 pm
That’s the aim, but softly, softly. I’m not going to wade in and get my revenge in front of the ref; I’ll bide my time and search out the best opportunities. There’s no rush, as there’s a good chance that next week’s a bit daft as well.
October 10th, 2008 at 5:34 pm
Dammit! Gold did exactly what I expected it to today, rather than yesterday. That’s it. What a shame. Have a great weekend all. Goodbye and good riddance to a horrible week’s trading.