FT has been trading full time from home for two years, with nothing but four kids and a beach to distract him .
He fills his spare time with weight training and rugby, though more coaching than playing these days.
FT mostly trades the forex markets and although he plays FTSE on occasions his bread and butter market is £$.
He likes to think that his technique is evolving but still hasn’t the temperament or money to back the big calls. He prefers to trade between 1 and 3 times a day, aiming to take regular small gains, but feels part of the evolution is in not dealing if the conditions don’t feel right.
Dow Back Below 9000
Hi folks,
Things aren’t looking too clever again in equity land. Already the gloss is coming off the latest multi-government initiatives and investors have returned to focussing on slowing economies. And if ever there was a proxy for a global slowdown check out the oil price; it’s now fallen by 50% since July. The semi-nationalised banks are looking dead in the water, but we’re not allowed to short them. Pah!
I’ve just put out a piece reviewing the past few days and working out what to do next (Equity Worries Continue After Bailout). Donning my wizard’s outfit, and rubbing a couple of toads together, I managed to see a potentially bullish reversal pattern in the candles. But I cautioned that after yesterday’s move if today’s candle fell below yesterday’s low then it could nullify the whole set-up.
Since that article equities have pushed lower, taking out yesterday’s lows and dropping below the 4200 level. I’ve now fully recovered from yesterday’s brief spell of buying the FTSE. I managed to scramble out yesterday for some beer money and almost immediately opened some short bets. I ran a £6 short bet overnight and reaped the benefit this morning. Since then, with my earlier gains protected, I’ve dealt around the edges, nicking the odd £20 here and there. At the moment I’m running a £9 short in FTSE and have gone half an hour without blinking.
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Hey, check out the oil price:
Since the heady days of July, when the heavens opened and Goldmans predicted a $200 oil price, the market has fallen 50%! Now, I do try to avoid catching falling knives, especially oily ones, but this market really is short-term oversold. That’s it, I’ve mentioned it but, no, I’m not going to trade it.
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I’m not an equity analyst (I was always too cynical so I managed bonds instead), but I’m struggling to see the upside in the new government-sponsored banks. Dividend payments have been put on hold for years and the money’s going to be wisely spent on giving loans to people that can’t afford them (again). I’m no longer surprised by anything this government does, but I do think it’s King Midas in reverse; everything it touches turns to something brown and smelly and it’s hard to see these banks escaping a similar treatment.
Happy Trading
October 15th, 2008 at 5:31 pm
Hi FT
did you keep that FTSE short in the market - hope you did (get the bastards back for last week eh!)
I reckon it could be a dogey opening on the FTSE again tomorrow at this rate - no buyers markets makers dropping the bid etc could be a haymaker if you are still short - I have missed out on the best action cus was on the tube coming home was goint to short the US tech100 at 1328 - but for some reason the system did not take my order - its now at 1300!
cheers S
October 15th, 2008 at 7:45 pm
Hi Simon,
yep, still short. Took some profits earlier, but left for rugby training at £7 short, and opened another £3 at 4019 when I got back. Overnights are tricky; I agree with you about the dodgy opening-unless something happens after the US close. i’m not quite sure what turns this around-yep, I know that something will, but no government initiative has held markets for more than a few days.
October 15th, 2008 at 8:20 pm
What always surprises me is the euphoria that surrounds every bailout that we’ve seen so far while being able to completely block out the ‘real’ economy. And then as soon as the ballyhoo is over it’s like someone remembers what caused the problem in the first place and IT’S STILL THERE……..AAHHHHHHH.
A few people could be getting incredibly rich out of this but I tend to feel that there’s probably more people getting incredibly burned as the markets whipsaw each way. I didn’t make as much out of the downtrend today as I should have done but having been heavily underwater yesterday lunchtime it feels like a lot more as I closed everything in profit.
GP
October 16th, 2008 at 11:06 pm
Hi FT
you still in that trade ? was out watching the England game just got back and saw the melt down had happened - if you could protect the trade for an open - could be a black monday+ down
cheers S
October 16th, 2008 at 3:26 am
Anyone think the Govts will get the message that no matter what they do it won’t help, unless they’re trading the bounce?
Maybe we’ll get a rest from intervention?
Or does anyone think we’ll get another “unexpected” drop in interest rates? I’m closing everything out overnight - can’t stand the risk of some pre-market announcement stealing 400 points and then sitting with an untradable position.
October 16th, 2008 at 8:40 am
Morning guys,
yes Simon, I kept the short open. If anything, I was expecting more panic this morning. Reduced my short as price went back up through 3900, but still exposed to the downside. Not sure whether to go neutral over lunchtime. Like Laogao says, the ’suits’ might have detected that there’s a nasty ’sorting out’ process going on that’s unaffected by government interference. But there’s still a very outside risk of more co-ordinated cuts. The real fun will probably be late US trading again.
October 16th, 2008 at 8:59 am
Looks like I’d have been better off keeping my gold short going. So have cut my losses and shorted gold again - interesting that it hardly went up despite 700 points being wiped off the Dow. No flight to safety. So was yesterday’s action more symptomatic of jitteriness and nervousness that anything else? we’ve got so used to seeing these kinds of swings…even if it was one of the biggest one-day drops in history…
USD has continued its ascent despite all of this, apart from JPY - made a bit yesterday shorting NZD against JPY as well. For now I’m keeping a Dow and FTSE short running.
October 16th, 2008 at 2:28 pm
Yum. Tasty move downwards in gold.
October 18th, 2008 at 9:14 pm
are you crazy, you went to rugby training in this market…you ameture!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!! Obviously there is no reason to listen to you because you are just playing in this market!
October 19th, 2008 at 1:23 pm
hi cad,
glad you’re enjoying the blogs. yep, i went rugby training; it’s a commitment to a group of people that I coach. With a stop protecting a profitable position I had no reason to let them down. I make enough in the market to get by so life style choices are pretty important to me, it keeps me fresher and married. And hey, I wasn’t looking at financial web sites at 10.00 on Saturday night either.