Don’t worry, this isn’t another fly-on–the–wall look at Kerry Katona, or Amy Winehouse and the half-dozen blokes she’s ‘made friends with’ while hubby’s been locked up. And it’s not a sporting blog on why Newcastle United just don’t get on with their managers.

I’m taking a look at one of the steadiest relationships over the past year or so, the Dollar and the oil price. The link was so damned good it was almost mechanical, the Dollar fell, the oil price rose; simple.

But over the past couple of weeks the relationship has been as rock solid as Mr and Mrs Ashley Cole’s; the Dollar’s started to feel good about itself and has been going out on its own. The third party in this ménage a trois, gold, has been happy to play its part (If the Dollar was going to be the dominant party then gold would play the weaker role). By contrast, oil has got used to all the attention and doesn’t fancy giving it up for anyone.

Read more…

Morning Folks,
Today’s sunny start wasn’t confined to the big outdoors; the papers were full of it, and not just the Chelsea Echo. So, with Europe closed, and equity markets looking as dull as a James Blunt CD, I decided to have a scratch below the surface of this morning’s headlines.

Read more…

If you’ve picked up a paper this week you’ll have read that bulimia doesn’t make you lose weight, Gordon Brown is the one person less popular than Alistair Darling and, with apologies to Thin Lizzy, ‘the banks are back in town, the banks are back in town.’

Yep, we’ve had a whole print works of banking stories:
‘ Bank of England rescues banks’, ‘more banking write-downs’, ‘RBS to launch UK’s biggest ever rights issue’, ‘even more write downs’, ‘Bank of England expects others to follow RBS’, ‘further loan loss provisions’, ‘yet more write downs’. Phew! There was barely time to read about the Ronaldo penalty miss.

Read more…

So there I was down my local, having a quiet pint, when I felt this nudge in the back.

“Oi mate, what’s all this writing about gold malarkey? You should be writing about black gold, not the shiny stuff. It’s like doing a feature on whether Chelsea will win the Premiership next year whilst Man Yew are running away with the title this year. Get a grip!”

He had a point; since breaking the magical $100 mark back in February there’s been no sign of vertigo from the oil barons. People said it wouldn’t last, it was only a wild fling and that common sense would prevail. Yet the black stuff hit a record high on Wednesday, pushing above $115. So is this a bandwagon worth jumping on, or is it just about to run out of fuel?

But first, if you only think of oil as something you rub into your missus on a Sunday night, it might be worth having a glance at our beginners’ guide, A Cruder Way To Trade.

Read more…

Seeing President Sarkozy (and his tasty missus) over here last week reminded me that we haven’t touched on the old bling market for a while.

On the 17th March gold peaked at $1030; over the following three days it fell by over 12%. So, after rising to a level that confounded all but the most extreme optimists, is the precious metal following the ‘Grand Old Duke Of York’ theory and marching back down the hill again?

Or, as many in the business suggest, is this a healthy and much needed correction before a move onto bigger and better things?

Read more…

Payrolls, Payrolls, Smayrolls.
How many times over the past 6 months have we said, “…and the key event of the week is the Non-Farm Payrolls in the US,”?

There’s no other economic number like it; this is the Superbowl, Stars & Stripes and American Pie all rolled into one. Once a month traders around the world get their collective knickers in a twist over this high profile coin toss.

So why’s there always so much fuss about this number, why’s it got such a silly name and how reliable is it? Grab a large coffee and read on.

Read more…

Since that fateful day last July, when Bear Stearns said, “Hey guess what lads. Two of our hedge funds are worthless,” the US Federal Reserve has cut its key interest rate by 3%; during the same period the European Central Bank has cut by precisely bugger all. And the Bank of England is piggy in the middle, having cut rates by 0.5%.

But despite accusations ranging from “bloody mindedness” to “inflation control freaks” could it be that the European Central Bank is right and the Fed is wrong?

Read more…

Hi folks,
Welcome to the weekly issue of ‘What The Hell’s Going On?’

Last week the markets treated Fed initiatives like it was free Guinness with a Viagra chaser. But on Monday investors reacted to further helpful measures from the Fed like it was a night out with Heather Mills. Last night the Fed cut rates by a further 0.75%, to 2.25%. American’s loved it, sending the Dow up a massive 420 points, but will it last?

Read more…

Monday, Down In The Fed’s Canteen
Bearded Ben Bernanke is having a working sandwich break with his team:

BBB “Shoot guys. The whole goddamned banking system’s up the creek and we’ve gotta provide the paddle. Give me a quick run down on the latest.”

Team “Dur, OK Boss, the Dow Jones has broken below 12,000 and is heading for January’s lows when that stupid French bank couldn’t control its staff.”

BBB “Cheers Einstein, I can read my screen, but what’s causing it now?”

Read more…

This past week has followed the standard horror movie script to the letter (so far). Last week’s article An Eagle A Black Horse And A Load Of Bulls*t told of how the banks had taken blow after blow from the Crunchy Credit Monster. But it looked as though a spirited defence, using higher dividend payments, had stopped the monster in its tracks.

Read more…